GS- PAPER- II/ International Relations

Context

• After Nicolás Maduro was declared the re-elected on July 28, 2024.The National Electoral Council declared that Maduro received 51% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia winning 44%.
• Based on various factors there are raising concerns about the credibility of the results and hampering the opposition’s ability to verify the result. The opposition, led by María Corina Machado, has alleged electoral fraud trigger the protest for re-election in Venezuela.

Geographical Position-

• Venezuela is a country with diverse physical features, including the northern Andean Mountain ranges and interior highlands. It is situated on the northern edge of South America. Its Capital is Carcasa. Its borders include the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean to the north, Guyana to the east, Brazil to the south, and Colombia to the southwest and west.
• It also encompasses the major parts of the Orinoco River basin with its extensive Llanos (plains), Lake Maracaibo, the largest lake in South America, and the stunning Angel Falls, which is the highest waterfall in the world.

Venezuela reserves :

• Venezuela is the leading country in terms of oil reserves as well as huge quantities of coal, iron ore, bauxite, and gold. The country’s proven oil reserves are estimated to be around 304 billion, primarily located in the Orinoco Oil Belt, which is one of the largest oil deposits globally.
• Despite this vast reserve, political and economic ​short-sightedness and the drastic curtailment of freedoms and democratic rights attracted significant challenges, including economic sanctions, political instability, and infrastructure issues, which have impacted its oil production and export capabilities.

Political Scenario of Venezuela

• After the military strongmen ruled, democratically elected governments largely held sway until 1999, but Hugo CHAVEZ, who was president from 1999 to 2013, exercised authoritarian control over other branches of government.
• This trend continued in July 2024 when MADURO claimed the presidency for his third term in an election boycotted by opposition and peoples.
• Under the 1999 constitution of Venezuela, all executive power is centred in the hands of the directly elected President, who is both the Head of State and Government.
• An amendment in 2009 removed the President’s six-year term limit and allowed the incumbent to remain in power in perpetuity.
• Elections are periodically held for the post of President and for the National Assembly and regional governments, but the Socialist Party has a general stranglehold on power at all levels.
• In July 2023, Maduro banned opposition leader Machado from holding public office for 15 years, which effectively disqualified her from contesting against him following which Gonzalez was chosen as the opposition candidate for President.
• Over the years, there have been allegations of government interference in Venezuela’s courts and the National Electoral Council. The media is tightly controlled, and journalists who are critical of the government face harassment or legal action.

Venezuela’s current economy and social situation

As of 2024, Venezuela’s economy and social situation are marked by considerable challenges:

Economy:

1. Economic Crisis: Venezuela is experiencing a deep economic crisis marked by hyperinflation, a plummeting bolivar, and a shrinking GDP. This crisis has resulted in widespread poverty and a notable drop in living standards.

2. Oil Dependence: The nation’s economy depends significantly on oil exports, which have been negatively impacted by declining global oil prices and a failing oil sector. The reduction in oil production and revenue has worsened economic instability.

3. Sanctions: International sanctions, particularly from the United States and the European Union, have further strained the economy by restricting access to global financial systems and markets.

4. Currency and Inflation: Hyperinflation has greatly diminished the value of the bolivar, causing a severe cost of living crisis. Although the government has periodically introduced measures to stabilize the currency, these solutions have frequently been temporary.

Social Situation:\

1. Humanitarian Crisis: Venezuela is facing a humanitarian crisis with critical shortages of food, medicine, and clean water, leading to widespread malnutrition and health problems.

2. Migration: Millions of Venezuelans have fled the country, causing a migration crisis in the region. Neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil are experiencing a surge in Venezuelan refugees.

3. Social Services: Public services, including healthcare and education, have been severely affected by the economic crisis, leading to deteriorating infrastructure and services.

4. Crime and Security: High levels of crime and violence, including homicides and kidnappings, have further contributed to the country’s challenges, impacting daily life and security.

5. Political Instability: The country is deeply divided politically, with ongoing tensions between the government led by Nicolás Maduro and opposition groups. This has led to frequent protests, civil unrest, and a strained political environment and here is current scenario of protest after election in Venezuela:

Impact on India

• India’s  aim to be third largest economy of the world, will create the demand for oil surged.
• American sanctions against the Caracas regime and rise in US domestic oil production resulted in an 87% reduction of American oil imports from Venezuela in 2019, creating an opportunity for India to increase crude oil imports from Venezuela.
•  India’s imports from Venezuela had dropped off during 2020-23 following the US sanctions, but picked up from the end of last year after some curbs were temporarily lifted. In December 2023 and January 2024 India became the world’s top buyer of Venezuelan crude oils.
• The crisis in Venezuela has affected the India-Venezuela bilateral oil trade, India has also invested strategically in Venezuela, participating in joint exploration and downstream projects that India has viewed as key to securing the country’s long-term energy needs.
• For example, ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) and Corporacion Venezuelan del Petroleo have a joint venture called “PetroleraIndovenezolana SA” and Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has a 15-year crude supply contract with PDVSA. Now, this unrest situation can have impacted on these joint exploration projects.

World Reaction

• The United States, European Union and several Latin American countries have raised questions about the count and called for a “transparent” reckoning. The United States said Mr. Maduro’s re-election had no credibility and was mulling more sanctions.
• Russia and China have welcomed the election result. These countries congratulated President Maduro on his re-election, and President V. Putin reaffirmed the continued cordial relations between Venezuela and Russia.
• Neighbours of Venezuela have issued mixed reactions. Maduro’s long-term allies, Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua welcomed the result. Brazil and Mexico welcomed the peaceful voting. But Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Costa Rica have rejected the outcome.
• Latin American countries called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of American States permanent council expressing “profound concern” over the result, the Venezuelan government has severed diplomatic ties with them.

Conclusion

Overall, the combination of contested election practices, ongoing economic difficulties, and political repression has led to widespread protests and global criticism of Maduro’s re-election. World is divided in two group on this issue. So, this issue is not impacting on only Venezuela and also on world.